Table of Contents
Prologue: The Outguessing Machine 3
Part 1 The Randomness Experiment
1 The Zenith Broadcast 27
2 How to Outguess Rock, Paper, Scissors 50
3 How to Outguess Multiple-Choice Tests 57
4 How to Outguess the Lottery 68
5 How to Outguess Tennis Serves 78
6 How to Outguess Baseball and Football 83
7 How to Outguess Soccer Penalty Kicks 87
8 How to Outguess Card Games 90
9 How to Outguess Passwords 95
10 How to Outguess Crowd-Sourced Ratings 107
11 How to Outguess Fake Numbers 112
12 How to Outguess Manipulated Numbers 130
13 How to Outguess Ponzi Schemes 148
Part 2 The Hot Hand Theory
14 In the Zone 161
15 How to Outguess Basketball Bracket Pools 178
16 How to Outguess Office Football Pools 191
17 How to Outguess Oscar Pools 202
18 How to Outguess Big Data 207
19 How to Outguess Retail Prices 215
20 How to Outguess Home Prices 218
21 How to Outguess the Future 224
22 How to Outguess the Stock Market 232
Epilogue: Fortune's Wheel 266
Acknowledgments 269
Notes 271
Bibliography 285
Index 295